发表于 2008-10-6 10:47:00
由于流动性不足，银行和保险公司找不到短期债务的购买者，商业票据市场极度萎缩。全球最大的电信公司董事长兼首席执行官兰德尔·斯蒂芬森日前承认，因为缺乏买家，该公司上周未能如期发行商业票据。
流动资金短缺的商业银行和证券公司纷纷求助于美国联邦储备委员会。在过去一周内，商业银行和证券公司总共向美联储借贷3482亿美元，比前一周增加了60%。其中商业银行通过美联储贴现窗口得到的贷款增加了100亿美元，总额达到495亿美元，创“9·11”恐怖袭击事件以来的最高纪录。
中小企业贷款遭遇困难
“正在发生的流动性危机着实让投资者紧张。对于金融机构来说，流动性就像氧气，一旦缺氧就会在短期内造成严重的损害。”一家资本管理公司的投资策略师艾伦·盖尔如是说。
目前，流动性短缺危机已经波及到了金融体系之外，首当其冲的则是美国的中小企业。在加利福尼亚州经营果园的农场主凯瑟琳日前接受媒体采访时说，由于信贷紧缩，她扩大生意的计划一再搁浅。她抱怨说，三年前开始创业时，她很轻松地借到了50万美元的贷款，“如今当自己的产品已经小有名气之后，却没有一家银行愿意回她的电话”。
部分高校恐发不出工资
令人感到意外的是，教育领域也受到金融危机的冲击。据《纽约时报》2日报道，在信贷危机中破产的美联银行9月29日宣布冻结近1000所美国高校总额达93亿美元的短期投资基金。由于高校通常将学费等收入存入各自账户，并从中提取资金发放员工工资、学校日常维护等，美联银行的决定意味着一些校长将不得不面对发不出工资的窘境。
更多的学校开始未雨绸缪。波士顿大学校长罗伯特·布朗日前在给全体教职员工的电子邮件中宣布即刻暂停一切新的招聘和建设项目。“这场范围广泛的信用危机将很快影响到一大批学校和研究机构。曾有人预言美国经济将受困于流动性短缺危机，是的，它现在正在我们的眼前上演。”美国教育理事会主席莫利·布罗德说。
The $700 billion bailout plan signed into law Friday may get banks to start lending to each other again. But it remains to be seen how long that will take to jumpstart an ailing economy.The goal is to unfreeze the credit markets. Financial institutions have become paralyzed with fear and though they have plenty of cash on hand, they've been hoarding it. Without this intra-bank lending, businesses are having trouble getting the financing they need even for daily operations, much less loans for longer-term projects.
"Hopefully, this will lend a calming effect to the markets," said Joe Belew, president of the Consumer Bankers Association. "We need to take a deep breath, relax and start doing business again."
Don't expect lending to ramp up overnight, however. It may take weeks for confidence to return, experts said. Or even longer.
The centerpiece of the bill allows the government to eventually buy up to $700 billion in assets tied to shaky mortgages. Getting the bad paper off banks' balance sheets hopefully will give institutions more confidence to start lending again.
Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson has up to 45 days to devise a plan to purchase the assets.
But one big question is what the Treasury Department will pay for those assets. Too low a price - which is good for taxpayers - and banks may find they still need to take steps to shore up their balance sheets. Some may have to raise additional capital, which has been scarce in this tumultuous market. Investors may remain on the sidelines for a while until things shake out, experts said.
The plan's passage did little to allay fears in the stock market, which sold off once the House approved the bill. Investors, who remain skittish that the bailout plan will achieve its goals, sent the Dow Jones industrial average down 1.5%.
"Thaws take time," said Diane Casey-Landry, chief operating office of the American Bankers Association, noting that the bailout plan won't instantly eliminate all concerns. "We'll be in the Ronald Reagan mode of 'Trust but verify'."
Even President Bush told Americans to have patience. "Americans should also expect that it will take some time for this legislation to have its full impact on the economy," he said. "With a smoother flow of credit, more businesses will be able to stock their shelves and meet their payrolls. More families will be able to get loans for cars and homes and college education. More state and local governments will be able to fund basic services."
Many economists, however, say the president and other supporters of the bailout were painting too rosy a picture.
Until the tidal wave of foreclosures ends and home values stop their stomach-churning drops, banks will remain reluctant to lend and the economy won't improve, experts said.
"This bill doesn't contain any element of stability for the housing market or the real economy," said Christian Menegatti, lead analyst for economic research firm RGE Monitor. "The problems are going to come back and the lack of confidence will come back."
In fact, nearly one in three financial services executives said they expect credit standards to continue to tighten even if the bailout plan is approved, according to a Deloitte poll taken Thursday. So it will still be tough to get a mortgage or small business loan.
"We're back to more normal underwriting standards," Casey-Landry said. "People will need to have good credit to get a loan."
As long as the constant drumbeat of bad economic reports continues, consumers and businesses may not be so eager to borrow money anyway even if banks start extending more credit. Friday's dismal jobs report, showing that 159,000 people lost their livelihoods, did little to inspire people to spend.
"You tell me I can have the credit, but I don't want it," said Amiyatosh Purnanandam, assistant professor of finance at the University of Michigan. "If people are not going to buy cars whether they can get credit or not, it's not going to help the economy."
This becomes a vicious cycle. If consumers don't spend, the economy fails to improve. The jitters may return to the financial markets, prompting another government intervention.
That's why many fear the $700 billion rescue may not be the last step.
"This is a tremendously expensive stopgap measure," said Adam Levitin, associate professor of law at Georgetown University. 